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WP1- Modelling changes in hydro-meteorological multi-hazards
WP Leader: CNRS (Jean-Philippe Malet)
The aim of this Work Package is to analyze the changes in hydro-meteorological hazards that are expected as a result of environmental changes. These changes are related to climate change and to expected changes in land use/land cover and ecosystems. The tasks in this work package aim at bridging the knowledge gap and develop method for regional and local scale probabilistic hazard assessment. Historic information on hydro-meteorological hazards and their effects is analyzed for areas where such data is well available (e.g. Italy, France), and with the help of partners from the private sector. The downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for analyzing the effects of expected extremes at smaller scale will be attempted, and a stochastic model will be used for major storms in Europe as input in the hazard assessment models that will be developed. The domino effect of hydro-meteorological hazards will also be analyzed, for instance the links between climate and land use change, severe erosion, landslide development, river damming and consequent flooding. The changes in environmental conditions reflected in the changes of land use patterns, resulting from the analysis in WP2, also form the input in the models that will be used for mass movement and flood hazard assessment, resulting in a number of possible hazard scenarios, with associated probabilities and indications of magnitude, frequency and spatial extend.
Publications:
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Quan Luna, B. , Cepeda, L., Van Westen, C.J., Remaitre, A., Stumpf, A., Malet, J.-P. and Van Asch, T. (2011). Analysis and uncertainty quantification of dynamic run‐out model parameters for landslides. Second World Landslide Forum, 3-7 October, Rome, Italy.
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Van Westen, C.J., Ghosh, S., Jaiswal, P., Martha, T. and Kuriakose, S. (2011). From landslide inventories to landslide risk assessment; an attempt to support methodological development in India. Key-note presentation. Second World Landslide Forum, 3-7 October, Rome, Italy
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Razak, K.A., Straatsma, M.W., van Westen, C.J., Malet, J.-P. , de Jong, S.M. (2011). Airborne laser scanning of forested landslides characterization: Terrain model quality and visualization, Geomorphology, Volume 126, Issues 1-2, Pages 186-200
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X10005040
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Breinl, K. (2012). Pluvial and fluvial flooding: integration in probabilistic flood hazard assessment using a coupled rainfall-discharge generator. In: Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-1990-1.
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Hussin,H.Y., Quan Luna,B.van Westen,C.J., Christen,M., Malet,J.-P. and van Asch, Th. W. J. (2012) Parameterization of a numerical 2-D debris flow model with entrainment: a case study of the Faucon catchment, Southern French Alps. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3075-3090
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/3075/2012/nhess-12-3075-2012.pdf
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Turkington, T., van Westen, C., Ettema, J. (2012), The challenges of identifying and analyzing triggering rainfall amounts for floods and landslides in Europe as part of the CHANGES project. Poster presentation at VALUE End User Conference, Kiel
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Schlögel R., Torgoev I., De Marneffe C. & Havenith H.B. (2011) Evidence of a changing size-frequency distribution of landslides in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, Central Asia. Earth surface processes and landforms 36 (12), 1658–1669. DOI: 10,1002/esp.2184
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Samyn, K., Travelletti, J., Bitri, A., Grandjean, G., Malet, J.-P. (2012). Characterization of a landslide geometry using 3D seismic refraction traveltime tomography: The La Valette landslide case history. Journal of Applied Geophysics 86 , pp. 120-132
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Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Hervás, J., Jaedicke, C., Malet, J.-P., Montanarella, L., Nadim, F.(2012). Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data. Landslides 9 (3) , pp. 357-369
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