WP Leader: PLUS (Peter Zeil) and CNR (Paola Reichenbach)

The aim of this Work Package is to integrate the techniques for probabilistic hazard assessment designed in WP1, that incorporate the increased uncertainty due to future environmental changes, and society concerns, with the results of the exposure and vulnerability analysis of WP2 into a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment techniques. Methods that are used for probabilistic risk assessment for other types of hazards (e.g. earthquake, windstorms, hurricanes) will be analyzed to evaluate their applicability in flooding and mass movement risk assessment. The methods for probabilistic risk assessment that will be developed require a large number of (spatial) data, coming from different data providers. Therefore an important component consists of the formalization and organization of datasets that can be used for the risk assessment models as well as for integrated risk management. The platform will be designed using Open Source software which can be accessed through a Web portal. The Web portal should allow users to analyze the effects of different scenarios related to environmental changes in relation to planning. The data structure and organization will be designed in order to comply with the concept of respective EC initiatives (INSPIRE, EU-MEDIN, ESPON) for data standardisation. Existing software for single hazard risk assessment and multi-hazard risk assessment (HAZUS-MH, CAPRA, etc.) will be explored, and the platform may also be used as an add-on to existing initiatives.


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