WP3-Development of a probabilistic risk assessment platform

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WP Leader: PLUS (Peter Zeil) and CNR (Paola Reichenbach)

The aim of this Work Package is to integrate the techniques for probabilistic hazard assessment designed in WP1, that incorporate the increased uncertainty due to future environmental changes, and society concerns, with the results of the exposure and vulnerability analysis of WP2 into a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment techniques. Methods that are used for probabilistic risk assessment for other types of hazards (e.g. earthquake, windstorms, hurricanes) will be analyzed to evaluate their applicability in flooding and mass movement risk assessment. The methods for probabilistic risk assessment that will be developed require a large number of (spatial) data, coming from different data providers. Therefore an important component consists of the formalization and organization of datasets that can be used for the risk assessment models as well as for integrated risk management. The platform will be designed using Open Source software which can be accessed through a Web portal. The Web portal should allow users to analyze the effects of different scenarios related to environmental changes in relation to planning. The data structure and organization will be designed in order to comply with the concept of respective EC initiatives (INSPIRE, EU-MEDIN, ESPON) for data standardisation. Existing software for single hazard risk assessment and multi-hazard risk assessment (HAZUS-MH, CAPRA, etc.) will be explored, and the platform may also be used as an add-on to existing initiatives.


Publications:

Publications

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Quan Luna, B. , Cepeda, L., Van Westen, C.J., Remaitre, A., Stumpf, A., Malet, J.-P. and Van Asch, T. (2011). Analysis and uncertainty quantification of dynamic run‐out model parameters for landslides. Second World Landslide Forum, 3-7 October, Rome, Italy.
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Van Westen, C.J., Ghosh, S., Jaiswal, P., Martha, T. and Kuriakose, S. (2011). From landslide inventories to landslide risk assessment; an attempt to support methodological development in India. Key-note presentation. Second World Landslide Forum, 3-7 October, Rome, Italy

Razak, K.A., Straatsma, M.W., van Westen, C.J., Malet, J.-P. , de Jong, S.M. (2011). Airborne laser scanning of forested landslides characterization: Terrain model quality and visualization, Geomorphology, Volume 126, Issues 1-2, Pages 186-200
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X10005040

Charriere, M.K.M., Junier, S.J., Mostert, E., Bogaard, T.A. (2012) Flood risk communication - Visualization tools and evaluations of effectiveness. FLOODrisk 2012, 20-22 November, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Oral Presentation
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V.J. Cortes, S Frigerio, L. Schenato, S Sterlacchini, and A Pasuto(2012), Decision Support Systems and Early Warning Solutions: a review in European context. EGU 2012, 22-27 April, Vienna-Austria.
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Sprague, T. and Greiving, S. (2012). Flood Risk Management Strategies:A comparative analysis of different EU countries. FLOODrisk 2012, November 20-22, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
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Zumpano, V., Hussin, H.Y., Breinl, K. (2012). Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe. In: Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-13467-1
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Prenger-Berninghoff, K. (2012), Regional vulnerability to climate change and the role of cohesion policy in climate change adaptation. Abstract for FLOODrisk 2012, 20-22 November, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Aye, Z.C., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M-H. (2012). Development of A Web-based Decision Support System (DSS) for the use of risk information in risk reduction. FLOODrisk 2012, 20-22 November, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Aye, Z.C., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M-H. (2012). An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management. EGU 2012, 22-27 April, Vienna, Austria.
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