WP4-Adapting risk management strategies to future changes

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WP leader: TUDO (Stefan Greiving) and CNR (Simone Sterlacchini)

The aim of this Work Package is to utilize the risk scenarios resulting from WP3 and analyze the optimal instruments and tools for risk management, covering the whole disaster cycle and considering the complexity of changing environments, risk management has to deal with. The risk management tools that will be evaluated focus on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), land use planning, cost-benefit analysis for the construction of mitigation measures, early warning and emergency preparedness. Risk information can be integrated into EIA of future projects and SEA for spatial planning in different sectors (e.g. housing, infrastructure, agriculture, nature conservation; -Greiving, 2004-). Land use planning tools are utilized to compare different scenarios of development planning and weight the variations in the impact of hydro-meteorological hazards. Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation is an important tool in the combination of a heterogeneous set of many different factors and constraints for spatial planning. Hazard and risk information is also used as a basis for regulatory zoning plans at local and (depending from the existing instruments) also at regional level. What is still not fully understood is the influence of the different legal/administrative systems on the quality of risk management and transferability of best practices from one country to another. Moreover, long-term changes on patterns of land-use triggered by climatic triggers have to be taken into account, together with socio-economic and demographic changes. This means that some attention has to be paid to integrative planning approaches dealing with the complexity of a changing environment. Special emphasis in this Work Package is also given to the use of risk information in the design of early warning systems, and in emergency response planning. In all the risk management options, the changes in risk that are evaluated in the previous Work Packages will form the basis for evaluating the required changes in risk management approaches. These approaches will be integrated into a Web-based platform for risk management, as an add-on to the platform for probabilistic risk assessment, which is developed in WP3. The platform will be tested in the four pilot study areas. For the development of the web-based DSS, the results of WP5 will be taken into account.

Publications:

Publications

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V.J. Cortes, S Frigerio, L. Schenato, S Sterlacchini, and A Pasuto(2012), Decision Support Systems and Early Warning Solutions: a review in European context. EGU 2012, 22-27 April, Vienna-Austria.
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Sprague, T. and Greiving, S. (2012). Flood Risk Management Strategies:A comparative analysis of different EU countries. FLOODrisk 2012, November 20-22, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
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Prenger-Berninghoff, K. (2012), Regional vulnerability to climate change and the role of cohesion policy in climate change adaptation. Abstract for FLOODrisk 2012, 20-22 November, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Aye, Z.C., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M-H. (2012). Development of A Web-based Decision Support System (DSS) for the use of risk information in risk reduction. FLOODrisk 2012, 20-22 November, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Aye, Z.C., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M-H. (2012). An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management. EGU 2012, 22-27 April, Vienna, Austria.
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Prenger-Berninghoff, K. (2012), Adapting to climate change: the need for EU Cohesion Policy to adjust funding. July 11-15, AESOP 2012, Ankara, Turkey.
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Greiving, S., Pratzler-Wanczura, S., Sapountzaki, K., Ferri, F., Grifoni, P., Firus, K., and Xanthopoulos, G. (2012): Linking the actors and policies throughout the disaster management cycle by "Agreement on Objectives" – a new output-oriented management approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1085-1107, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-1085-2012
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Greiving, S./Fleischhauer, M. (2012): National climate change adaptation strategies of European states from a spatial planning and development perspective. In: European Planning Studies Vol. 20 No. 1, January 2012, pp. 27-47.

Sapountzaki, K./Wanczura, S./Casertano, G./Greiving, S./Xanthopoulos, G./Ferrara, F. (2011): Disconnected policies and actors and the missing role of spatial planning throughout the risk management cycle. In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9843-3, pp-1-30.

Kappes, M.S., Gruber, K., Frigerio, S., Bell, R., Keiler, M., Glade, T. (2012). The MultiRISK platform: The technical concept and application of a regional-scale multihazard exposure analysis tool. Geomorphology 151-152 , pp. 139-155